U-Dub Dish :: Basketball

Yeah, that would be Jon Brockman and those words are sadly true. So, did you notice that WSU is #4 in the nation? Props to Tony Bennett and the program he's put in place there. He's put together a nice group of core players and his strategy to the game is what has got him results in Pullman. WSU plays a very slow, defensive minded game. You know how you're old basketball coach used to say that "defense wins games"? Well, it's true and that's Bennett's style. The Cougars allow only 49.7 points per game.

Pomeroy Prediction
L, 67-61[64] (24%)
Pomeroy picks WSU by six points at Hec-Ed. That might be closer than I see this being. WSU plays very solid defense and I foresee them forcing UW to shoot on the perimeter. This would mean that I don't see much of a game for Brockman. This is Ryan Appleby's chance to step up and carry the team. If he's on tonight, we've got a shot. Make it happen Dawgs.

At 9-4 the Huskies head into the Pac-10 schedule. The starting lineup and rotations have been in flux most of the season, and this is largely reflective of the position UW finds itself in. There is a tremendous amount of talent on this roster, but they are very young and Coach Romar seems to be shuffling the pieces around to find the right fit.

According to Ken Pomeroy's rankings (his model of RPI), the Huskies rank 9th in the Pac-10 and 67th overall. But, as you'll also notice there, the Pac-10 is the #1 ranked conference. Without a doubt, UW is in the deepest conference in college basketball this season. Which is why it will be easy to view our losses to teams that are better than us as reflective of our true ability. There are some great teams we are going to have to play. If we win, I think we'll all feel vindicated about believing in this team. But, if we don't, I think we should realize that this program is in transition still. We've built a foundation for this to be a top program and it has had solid recruiting classes, but it is taking time for that to come around to results on the court (especially since losing both Hawes and Oliver of the 2005 class).

In the end, I think we'll play the Pac-10 close, but probably end up somewhere in the bottom part of the standings. Say 7th or 8th. But, I'd be thrilled to see things begin to gel. And if that happens we'll snag a tournament spot and come out maybe 5th in the conference.

Tomorrow night we'll start off against WSU with a chance to bring down our hated rival.

This game is a very big game for the Huskies. Win today and we at least salvage the non-conference schedule. As it is right now, our best quality win was against Utah (who are now 8-3). That won't be enough to make it to the tournament even if we break even in the conference. We need this win today to get some momentum heading into January.

Pomeroy Prediction
L, 79-76 [75] (38%)
Pomeroy sees a close game here, but only a 38% chance for a Husky win. We need a big game from Brockman again this year and a scorer to step up around the perimeter if we're going to pull this off.

Preview
The Cal State Northridge Matadors (7-2) come to town tonight to take on the Huskies. The Matadors play a very uptempo style of offense. They've scored 90+ points four times this season and have only been below 70 points in two of their games. We can expect a lot of offense in this one. For UW to win this one they'll need to be on their game from the field, stop missing free points at the line, and keep up with the Matadors on the fast break. Overall, we're the favorites, but if I had to pick an upset loss this might be the one.

Searching for a Lineup

"Jon Brockman is set as one starter, and it's possible Ryan Appleby goes back in the lineup, as well --- he was pegged to be a starter before injuring his thumb. Venoy Overton has also started all eight games this season.

But other than Brockman, the lineup seems in flux with Romar saying he wants to use the rest of the non-conference schedule to settle on a lineup and rotation heading into Pac-10 play."

Tough Road Ahead for Huskies?

"UW's next three games are at home against Portland, Portland State and Cal State-Northridge, which all loom as fairly easy wins, but not likely to help the RPI much.

Then comes what may be UW's most critical game of the season, a Dec. 29 date at LSU. Other than a Dec. 31 home game against Idaho State, that will be UW's last non-conference game of the season.

It was thought that due to the strength of the conference that this would be a year when a Pac-10 team might finally get an invite to the NCAA Tournament with less than a winning conference record, something that has never happened.

But if UW doesn't beat LSU, even if it went 10-8 in Pac-10 play --- to date, the minimum needed to get an invite out of the Pac-10 --- it would have 13 overall losses and no quality non-conference wins.

Seems like an awful lot to ask to get an invitation --- in fact, no Pac-10 team has ever been invited to the NCAA Tournament with that many total losses."

This past week while the blog was down the Huskies dropped games to Oklahoma State (71-96) and Pittsburgh (74-75). Despite playing a close game against the #12 Panthers and nearly pulling off a win on a last second shot by Justin Dentmon that didn't get off in time, the Huskies now find themselves at 4-4 a month into the season.

While it's early to do too much statistical analysis of the season thus far, let's take a look at how the Huskies stack up according to Ken Pomeroy's indicators. Note: For those that aren't familiar, Pomeroy is considered one of the leaders in statistical analysis for college hoops.

As a team, the Huskies have an RPI of 178 and Pomeroy ranks the team at 104. Not too impressive considering that the reason for the tougher schedule against non-conference opponents was to boost those numbers. But you have to win some of these games for it to work out. So far, the Huskies just haven't. Now, I do have to say that I do not think we are as bad as some might say based off of those basic figures at face value.

There is some encouraging news if you look at little closer. The up-tempo style of offense is back this season ranking 34 in the nation (with 74.2 possessions per game), which has translated into an efficient offensive attack (as Pomeroy measures us at 48th in the nation). So what does all of that mean? It means that we can win games that are up and down the court battles. We an out hustle teams. It means that this team has been built for speed and it can use its athleticism as a threat.

There is also a "but" though, right? And there are definitely some factors for why this up-tempo approach hasn't translated into success just yet. I've been saying it from the beginning of the season, but this team's nucleus is very young. Inexperience usually shows up somewhere in the stats and I'll point to a few that we should monitor as the Huskies progress. Free throws have been a huge problem. We have shot 59.5% from the line good for 318 of 341 teams. Even worse, with a FT Rate of 19.3 (essentially the number of FT Attempts per 100 FG) ranks us at 286th in the country. So it isn't just that we aren't making free throws, but we aren't shooting enough of them either. Good teams take advantage of the mistakes their opponents make. In basketball, you can turn those mistakes directly into points, but right now the Huskies just aren't cashing in.

The other reason I'd say that the offensive efficiency hasn't translated into wins is that this team turns over the ball too much. High tempo offenses do tend to commit more turnovers due to the desire to force the ball up court quickly and run the fast break. Right now the Huskies are at a Turnover Percentage of 21.4, which places them at 138th in the country. If they can get that number down a little bit and make a few less mistakes a game, I think eventually that will translate into wins.

Overall, if I had to grade this team after a month, I'd say that they get a C+. There are some glaring problems, but I think a lot of it has to do with the need to develop chemistry among players and some individual problems (like poor free throw shooting). There have been some things to be pleased with as well though. Overton's ability as a freshman gives me a lot of hope for what is to come over the next few seasons. Brockman continues to be a low post threat. We've even seen glimpses of what Dentmon and Pondexter are capable of when they are on their game. And yes, having Ryan Appleby back as a shooting threat off the bench helps this team. They just haven't put it all together yet.

I'm not going to get into too much individual analysis just yet at this point in the season. Brockman is clearly the leader of this team and can carry them when his game on the post is working. But there is still a lot yet to be seen and so I'll hold off comment until the end of the month before we head into Pac-10 play.

Tip-off at 7:30 PM as Long Beach State (1-3) is the opponent tonight for the Dawgs. Not sure if Bryan-Amaning will get the start again or not. Romar could revert back to Joel Smith with a three guard format, but we'll assume he's the sixth man for now.

Should be an easy win and help snap the two game losing streak after last week's meltdown in New York. In the end, it might just be that the Huskies are not yet as good as Texas A&M or Syracuse. They did look severely over matched at several points in both those games. But I really don't think we are that far off either. Our Huskies are still developing and have a young nucleus. Tonight is an opportunity to build confidence for the younger players and get back on track for upcoming games against Oklahoma State and Pittsburgh.

The Huskies match up against #21 Syracuse (3-1) this afternoon playing for 3rd Place in the Preseason NIT.

First thing that stands out to be about Syracuse is their lack of size. They seem to be very similar to UW in this sense. They start two guys who are 6-9 power forwards and then three guards. Whereas for the Huskies we start three guards, a small forward, and a power forward. If the size is any indication, I expect this to be a game of quickness. Syracuse shot only 36.2% from the field against Ohio State on Wednesday. Versus Texas A&M, the Dawgs shot only 36.6%. The team that can improve on that and attack the basket will win this game. If I am Romar, I keep the attack with Brockman going for the high percentage shot. And as soon as they focus on him, then I start to take short jump shots around the key. Do that all day with the high percentage shots and we can win this game.

The Huskies take on #16 Texas A&M (4-0) tonight in the semi-finals of the N.I.T. Preseason Tournament. The Aggies will be a formidable opponent as the 4.5 point favorite heading into this one. True Freshman DeAndre Jordan will be tough to shut down on the post. He's 7'0", 245 and making over 90% of his shots. That is a 5 inch advantage over Brockman. Junior Josh Carter is also a strong perimeter shooter making 52% of his shots beyond the arch. Another note: the Aggies employ a motion offense, so they'll be running through the Huskies zone defense that they generally employ. It will be critical to pick up guys as they run through the zone. We've yet to face a clutch shooter like Carter and keeping tabs on him as assignments switch through the zone will be key.

A big win for the Huskies last night to advance to the semifinals of Preseason NIT. They'll face Texas A&M next Wednesday in Madison Square Garden. Some thoughts on last night's game:

Not much of a contest tonight, so I won't go to too much labor with a summary. This one was pretty much, as expected, complete domination by the Huskies. We started this game on a 17-3 rout and never looked back. The Dawgs shot 52.2%, forced 29 turnovers (including 13 steals), and managed 21 more rebounds than their opponent (which actually had only 20 total on the night).

Just to note, having not watched this game since it was not televised, these observations are based at just looking at a stats sheet. But, I'd have to say I'm pleased with the production at guard tonight. Venoy Overton got the start in his first game as a Husky. Interesting combo of both Overton and Dentmon, but I have to say that I like the play making ability that both guys bring to the court. Also, a nice Husky debut for Tim Morris who led all scorers with 16 points and went 8 for 13 from the field. Jon Brockman had a solid 9 rebounds and 12 points. Overall, the playing time was very spread out as it should be in game like this. Tonight gave us a taste of what the Huskies will be like this year, but a lot is yet to be seen.

The Preseason NIT continues tomorrow as we take on Utah. The game with be on ESPN2 at 7:30 at Hec-Ed. Win tomorrow and we'll be on our way to Madison Square Garden for the semifinals.

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